Friday, 16 March 2007

Feedback

well there has been some debate about my Q9clubs hand, firstly thanks for the comments

ok so i did say that i didn't like my play, and yes i know when the money went in i was behind and i finished behind so not really a bad beat, i wasn't really saying it was more like just saying that the luck had turned in my favour and was looking good only for it to turn away the next card.

was this a bad play?? maybe, certainly not a good play!! now sometimes u have to gamble to win, was this that time? NO

however... pre flop he has AA, i have Q9 suited so clearly well behind, a flop of K9x with 2 clubs...
so he has overpair to the board with a runner runner flush possible, now i dont know the odds for that.... anyone no of a good free odds calculator you can use online without downloading??
now i have middle pair (not so good) and 4 to the flush draw and a runner runner str8 so if we count my flush cards i had 8 clubs (not counting the ace as looking back retrospectively) so 8/47 so about 17% to make my flush
on the turn i hit my flush, so now i am ahead.. but how much?? well i can now only lose to the higher flush, or better, of which the higher flush is the only possible hand, so now the other guy has 7 outs and everything else helps me so if i have this right on the turn i have 39/46= 84% of winning and he has 7/46= 15%

so yes a bad play but on the turn i am way ahead, of course we know what happened next

would like to hear any further feedback regarding my thoughts

PK69
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2 comments:

snoopy1239 said...

You're about 32% to make a flush on a two suited board. You have a nice hand, but I prefer to play it aggressively rather than calling the streets. Nothing wrong with going bust here, but I'd shove it in early to give your opponent a chance to fold. Just my opinion.

16 March 2007 at 23:12
United113 said...

I agree, you are 2-1 against to hit your flush with possibilites to hit one of possibly 3 queens and 2 nines.

Whatever the situation was you were behind. If it wasn't for all your chips, and the pot odds were correct then a call isn't a bad idea, howver for your tournament life i'm not sure.

You would have to discount your two pair or 3 of a kind opportunities as if you put your opponent on an over pair, then they have more outs then you do to make 2 pair or 3 of a kind (2 aces, 3 kings, 3 of what the other flop card was and 3 of what the turn card is on the river, which means you are risking your tournament life on a 2-1 against chance.

I agree that on the turn you were ahead, and if all the money had gone in on the turn and you were outdrawn then fair enough....

But i agreee with snoopy, this is only my opinion and i'm no expert!! but playing the odds and probabilities works well for me

18 March 2007 at 00:52

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